Should the messenger be shot if s/he was wrong? Judging responsibility of a speaker giving uncertain statements. more

People prefer to be told about chances by numerical probabilities (i.e., percentages) but to express them with verbal probabilities (e.g., It is likely; see e.g., Erev & Cohen, 1990). Here we tested the possibility that the vagueness of verbal probabilities makes people feel less responsible for their predictions, and therefore prefer them.
Seventy-two students judged a speaker responsibility in eight scenarios. For a third of participants the speaker used percentages while for the two other thirds s/he used verbal probabilities (of positive directionality for one third and of negative for the other).
The communication mode had an effect on responsibility judgements: speakers were judged more responsible when they used negative verbal probabilities. We also found that speakers were held more responsible when the predicted event did not occur, whatever was its chance to happen.
Whether being wrong in your prediction or bad consequences are underlying this last effect will be discussed.